The rallying cry (dubbed the “Kavanaugh effect”) began on social media during the brutal confirmation hearings of Judge Kavanaugh. Seething Conservatives felt they were witnessing an honorable and respected individual being maligned by a wolf-pack of “blood-thirsty” Democrats, bent on destroying him at all cost.
The hearings lit a fire under Conservatives not seen since November 8th, 2016 when Donald Trump became the nation’s 45th President.
Soon lengthy email chains began snaking their way across the country, building a grassroots network of conservative woman vowing not only to defend Judge Kavanaugh’s name but to seek retribution come this November.
Local and state level leaders across the country say they’re ready to lash out against Democrats in the midterm elections.
The anecdotal evidence of perhaps a red-wave was referenced by a GOP pollster last week, during perhaps the most crucial moments of the hearings when Senator Lindsey Graham made his now famous defense of Judge Kavanaugh.
Pollster Glen Bolger referencing the growing trend tweeted out:
“Seeing a significant jump in GOP voter interest in the elections this week. The Dem intensity advantage is melting away. Two things:
- I figure it has to be Kavanaugh effect.
- Remains to be seen if it lasts.GOP campaigns should not assume their turnout concerns are done.”
— Glen Bolger (@posglen) September 28, 2018
With roughly a month before the Midterm, the “Kavanaugh effect” may indeed be the spark needed for both Republican and Independent voters to coalesce behind principled conservatives.
Moreover, according to yet another poll (this one conducted by the NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll in July) Republicans had a 10-point deficit between the number of Democrats and Republicans saying the November elections were “very important.”
However, that gap has been steadily closing with just 2-points separating the two parties, a statistical tie. Also, the Democratic advantage regarding which party’s candidate they are more likely to support has also been cut in half since last month.
The NPR/Marist survey also concluded, “It was, indeed, a Kavanaugh effect. And though we’re still weeks away from the election, the needle has officially moved. Will it last? That remains to be seen.”
Another post from political journalist Jonathan Tamari tweets:
“Reporters are hearing similar things from local Republican officials who are experiencing this wave of intensity among GOP leaners who have, at least for the moment, been roused from a satisfaction-induced slumber.”
Adding, “A good PA source saw a similar trend in internal polling there.
Said Rs made significant gains in generic ballot since the Kavanaugh hearing.”
— Jonathan Tamari (@JonathanTamari) October 3, 2018
Obviously, no one knows what will happen from now to the Midterms, but there’s no doubt the Democrats just gave the Republicans the motivation they needed to come out in mass numbers this November.