While it’s near impossible to predict the outcome so far in advance regarding the 2020 Presidential election, we can attempt to predict a winner “IF” the election was held today.
According to economic models with a history of correctly picking presidential wins (despite the President’s low approval numbers and the never-ending “witch hunt” by the Mueller probe) if the election were held today President Trump would win a second term in a “landslide.”
According to a report in Politico, the flourishing U.S. economy combined with historic lows in unemployment, a growing GDP rate, and rising wages among the working class would lead Trump to reelection.
Donald Luskin, the chief investment officer of TrendMacrolytics, a research firm that predicted Trump’s win in 2016 told Politico:
“The economy is just so damn strong right now and by all historic precedent the incumbent should run away with it.”
Adding, “I just don’t see how the blue wall could resist all that.”
Yale economist and pioneering election forecaster, Ray Fair, also has the President winning re-election because of the booming economy and the traditional advantage that comes with being the incumbent.
“Even if you have a mediocre but not great economy and that’s more or less consensus for between now and the election, that has a Trump victory and by a non-trivial margin.”
Fair explained to Politico, predicting that Trump would pick up 54% of the popular vote compared with just 46% for the Democrat.
By contrast, this would mark a significant gain from 2016, when he lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton.
Of course, this is just a snapshot of where we are today, regarding the economy, anything could change between now and Election Day 2020. For example, if the stock market suddenly took a nose-dive for an extended period of time, that might spell trouble for the President, or if a bombshell scandal suddenly emerged regarding the various investigations into the Presidents many business dealings, which could also spell trouble in 2020.
Moreover, the President’s personal style may also play into the equation along with other unknown variables like which Democratic candidate will ultimately face President Trump.
The economic models used to predict presidential winners and losers ignore things like election polls and personal characteristics — in that this President more then any other President in modern American history inspires both fierce loyalty on one side and bitter opposition on the other.
Still, Luskin, Fair along with other analysts who make a living predicting the outcome of elections, using economic data and voting history also notes that a sharp decline in the economy or a sudden increase in the unemployment rate by next fall could affect the outcome of the 2020 election, in favor of the Democrat.
However, the economy is generally viewed as the most important factor when voters enter the voting booth to cast their ballots. Luskin says there would need to be a serious decline in our economy paired with an uptick in the unemployment rate for the President to lose.
Luskin’s current economic model which tracks GDP growth, gas prices, inflation, disposable income, tax burden, and payrolls, thus far as the President blowing out the competition by at least 294 electoral votes.
“It would have to slow a lot to be still not pretty good,” Luskin said of the economy.